By Ethan Covey
Strains on hospitals result in sharp, quick increases in unnecessary deaths, according to a report from the Cybersecurity & Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) COVID-19 Task Force.
The findings highlight issues that are of particular concern during the COVID-19 pandemic, as case surges stress health care facilities across the United States (MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 2021;70[46]:1613-1616).
“CISA’s analysis looks beyond the effects on individual hospitals to examine the stress of having many hospitals and health care facilities affected simultaneously,” Geoffrey French, MA, a lead analyst of CISA, Department of Homeland Security, Washington, D.C., told Infectious Disease Special Edition. “Our model was able to help quantify the real-world outcomes of a key sector of infrastructure becoming inundated, and the potential cascading effects beyond that sector.”
The report used data from the CDC regarding deaths from all causes, and hospital ICU capacity from the Department of Health and Human Services hospital use time series data set. Excess deaths were then calculated via comparing observed and expected number of deaths during specific time periods.
From July 4, 2020, to July 10, 2021, during the summer COVID-19 surge attributed to the SARS-CoV-2 delta variant, ICU bed occupancy increased, and excess deaths increased at intervals of two, four and six weeks later.
Upon analyzing the rate of deaths related to hospital capacity, they found that an ICU capacity rate of 75% is associated with an estimated additional 12,000 excess deaths two weeks later, and if hospitals exceed 100% ICU capacity, 80,000 excess deaths would be expected within two weeks.
“Our analysis shows it is important for state and local officials to address cases before they reach overwhelming numbers, rather than trying to react once it’s too late,” Mr. French said. “Vaccines are the single most effective way of preventing large surges of cases in a community. Combined with other preventative measures, communities can form a firewall and protect vulnerable populations, which include front-line workers in a range of infrastructure sectors.”
